Global economic growth is slowing more than expected only a few months ago as the fallout from the Trump administration's trade war takes a bigger toll on the U.S. economy, the OECD said on Tuesday, revising down its outlook.
The global economy is on course to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said, trimming its estimates from March for growth of 3.1% this year and 3.0% next year.
But the growth outlook would likely be even weaker if protectionism increases, further fueling inflation, disrupting supply chains and rattling financial markets, the Paris-based organization said in its latest Economic Outlook.
"Additional increases in trade barriers or prolonged policy uncertainty would further lower growth prospects and likely push inflation higher in countries imposing tariffs," OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann said as he presented the report.
If Washington raised bilateral tariffs by an additional 10 percentage points on all countries as compared with the rates in force as of mid-May, global economic output would be about 0.3% lower after two years, Cormann added.
"The key policy priorities in this context are constructive dialogue to ensure a lasting resolution to current trade tensions," Cormann said.
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements since he took office in January have already roiled financial markets and fueled global economic uncertainty, forcing him to walk back some of his initial stances.
Last month, the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary truce to scale back tariffs, while Trump also postponed 50% duties on the European Union until July 9.
The OECD forecast the U.S. economy would grow only 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year, assuming for the purpose of making calculations that tariffs in place mid-May would remain so through the rest of 2025 and 2026.
For 2025, the new forecast marked a sizeable cut as the organization had previously expected the world's biggest economy would grow 2.2% this year and 1.6% next year.
While new tariffs may create incentives to manufacture in the United States, higher import prices would squeeze consumers' purchasing power and economic policy uncertainty would hold back corporate investment, the OECD warned.
Meanwhile, the higher tariff receipts would only partly offset revenues lost due to the extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, new tax cuts and weaker economic growth, it added.
Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill was expected to push the U.S. budget deficit to 8% of economic output by 2026, among the biggest fiscal shortfalls for a developed economy not at war.
As tariffs fuel inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve was seen keeping rates on hold through this year and then cutting the fed funds rate to 3.25-3.5% by the end of 2026.
In China, the fallout from the U.S. tariff hikes would be partly offset by government subsidies for a trade-in program on consumer goods like mobile phones and appliances and increased welfare transfers, the OECD said.
It estimated the world's second-biggest economy, which is not an OECD member, would grow 4.7% this year and 4.3% in 2026, little changed from previous forecasts for 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
The outlook for the euro area was unchanged from March with growth forecast this year at 1.0% and 1.2% next year, boosted by resilient labor markets and interest rate cuts while more public spending from Germany would buoy 2026 growth.
President Donald Trump wants his “big, beautiful” bill of tax breaks and spending cuts on his desk to be singed into law by Independence Day. And he’s pushing the slow-rolling Senate to make it happen sooner rather than later. Trump met with Senate Majority Leader John Thune at the White House early this week and has been dialing senators for one-on-one chats, using both the carrot and stick to encourage them to act. But it’s still a long road ahead for the 1,000-page-plus package. Senators want to make changes to protect Medicaid and to make sure some tax breaks become permanent.
Authorities say a man who injured 12 people in an attack in Boulder, Colorado, on demonstrators calling for the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza had planned to kill them all but appeared to have second thoughts. They say Mohamed Sabry Soliman, an Egyptian national who has been living in the U.S. illegally, had 18 Molotov cocktails but threw just two during Sunday’s attack in which he yelled “Free Palestine." Authorities say the two incendiary devices he threw at the weekly demonstration injured more than half of the roughly 20 participants, and that Soliman expressed no regrets about the attack after his arrest. Soliman faces federal hate crime and state attempted murder charges, though more counts could be coming.
Authorities say a man who injured 12 people in an attack in Boulder, Colorado, on demonstrators calling for the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza had planned to kill them all but appeared to have second thoughts. They say Mohamed Sabry Soliman, an Egyptian national who has been living in the U.S. illegally, had 18 Molotov cocktails but threw just two during Sunday’s attack in which he yelled “Free Palestine." Authorities say the two incendiary devices he threw at the weekly demonstration injured more than half of the roughly 20 participants, and that Soliman expressed no regrets about the attack after his arrest. Soliman faces federal hate crime and state attempted murder charges, though more counts could be coming.
Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is forecast to win South Korea's snap presidential election, a joint exit poll showed, two months after his archrival and then conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office over his short-lived imposition of martial law. The exit poll by South Korea’s three major TV stations -– KBS, MBC and SBS -– showed Lee projected to get 51.7% of the total votes cast during Tuesday’s election, beating conservative candidate Kim Moon Soo with 39.3%. The winner will take office as president on Wednesday without the usual two-month transition period.
Left-wing candidate Lee Jae Myung has won the presidential election in South Korea, with conservative rival Kim Moon Soo conceding defeat, Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday.
After counting almost all the votes, the opposition politician is clearly ahead of Kim, Yonhap reported.
South Korea's liberal party candidate Lee Jae-myung led with more than 85% of the votes counted in Tuesday's snap presidential election, six months to the day after he evaded military cordons to vote against a shock martial law decree.
His conservative rival, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, conceded the race and congratulated Lee.
Lee's victory stands to usher in a political sea change in Asia's fourth-largest economy, after the backlash against the martial law brought down Yoon Suk Yeol, the conservative outsider who narrowly beat Lee in the 2022 election.
Nearly 80% of South Korea's 44.39 million eligible voters cast their ballots, the highest turnout for a presidential election in the country since 1997, with Lee terming the polls "judgment day" against Yoon's martial law and the PPP's failure to distance itself from that decision.
What happens when a former TV news anchor joins the other side and starts a campaign to tell the truth? The left freaks out does everything it can to shut him up. They swatted him. They cancelled him on social media. They did everything they could to silence him. It didn’t work.
Award-winning journalist Lara Logan sits down with Pags for an in-person interview—and even just the first few minutes pack a punch. They dive into her upbringing in South Africa, how she once supported figures like Ramaphosa, and how her refusal to toe the media line led to a full-blown cancellation attempt. Lara reveals what really goes on in global journalism—and why she won’t back down. Unfiltered, fearless, and just the beginning of an unforgettable conversation.
Famed attorney and constitutional scholar Alan Dershowitz joins Pags for a deep, wide-ranging conversation you can’t miss. They cover whether the U.S. is in a full-blown constitutional crisis, the rise of lawfare, and why so many legal norms are being shredded in real time. Plus—Dershowitz shares his personal story, from where he grew up to why he chose law in the first place. Sharp, honest, and eye-opening—this is a masterclass in what’s really happening in America’s legal system.
Authorities say a man who wounded 12 people in an attack on a group holding their weekly demonstration for the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza had planned to kill them all but appeared to have second thoughts. They say Mohamed Sabry Soliman had 18 Molotov cocktails but threw just two during Sunday’s attack in which he yelled “Free Palestine." The two incendiary devices he did throw into the group of about 20 people were enough to wound more than half of them, and authorities say he expressed no regrets about the attack. Federal and state prosecutors have filed separate criminal cases against Soliman, charging him with a hate crime and attempted murder, respectively.
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