Economists believe lack of jobs driving Ohio’s population loss

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(The Center Square) – Ohio’s standing as one of the country’s most populous states continues to slip, and the lack of jobs is the reason why, according to a survey of state economists.

In a survey released by Scioto Analysis, 20 of 23 state economists point to employment as the major population driver.

“Employment opportunities are a contributor on both sides of the ledger,” Kathryn Wilson, with Kent State University, said. “Areas around Columbus that are seeing growth in population are also seeing job growth. Other areas of the state with less job growth are seeing a net migration out of people.”

Scioto Analysis noted Ohio Department of Development data predicts the state will lose more than 675,000 people by 2050, and by 2030, Ohio will drop from the seventh most populous state to the ninth.

All this comes as the state has struggled with unemployment and workforce participation over the past year and a half.

As previously reported by The Center Square, the most recent report showed the state’s job market weakening, with a loss of 2,000 jobs and more people leaving the labor force.

In August, Ohio’s unemployment rate hit a four-year high of 5%.

In the same month, the Ohio Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Advisor Council released its third-quarter report, estimating a 30-40% chance of a recession as President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to concern advisors.

“Employment always plays an important role in any area's growth trend, but it's a chicken/egg story. Population growth also affects employment,” Albert Sumell, with Youngstown State University, said.

Economists also believe other factors contribute to population, including social policy and cost of living.

Most of the economists – 14 out of 23 – felt recent social policy changes at the state level are driving people out of the state.

However, not all agreed.

“Not many people pick a place to live based on social policy. Jobs, climate, geography, quality of life all matter more,” David Brasington, of the University of Cincinnati, said.

Only eight respondents felt that the cost of living is a factor in the current population loss, while 11 thought it was not.

“Cost of living is quite low in most parts of Ohio compared to many other areas of the country but that is partly driven by lack of pressure on the demand side due to declining population,” Curtis Reynolds, of Kent State, said.